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Additional info for Adaptive Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: In Pursuit of Virulence Management
The mechanisms that produce this distribution are not fully understood yet, even though the aggregation can be reasonably ascribed to the clumped spatial distribution of the free-living, infective stages and to agedependent differences in immunity. On the other hand, Grenfell et al.
We assume that the transmission coefficient β first rises as a function of α because increased host exploitation increases both α and the probability of infection per contacted host (a component of β), thus making increased virulence beneficial when virulence is low. We incorporate a cost of host immobility on direct transmission by assuming that the transmission coefficient β eventually declines as a function of α. , through susceptible hosts caring for or visiting the immobilized patient). A derivation of the relation between β and α from first principles is very complicated and is therefore beyond the scope of this chapter.
1 and Ewald 1991a). 6), but considering the many simplifying assumptions made for the model and the uncertainties regarding the compatibility of measurements, even a qualitative agreement is noteworthy. The empirical trend, for example, is observed in terms of the percentage of outbreaks involving water, whereas for our model we have measured the percentage of infections involving water. 6. 6. 6 therefore draw attention to the potential value of developing the model and obtaining more refined epidemiological data.